产生曲线反演亚洲吗?

于2019年8月28日发布

下载此报告:产生曲线反演亚洲吗?


美国产量曲线最近倒置了10年和2年债券收益率在8月14日转向负面的普遍途径,为一条短暂的时期,股票市场爆发(Dow下降800点,今年最大的秋季)。早些时候,5月,10年的3个月产量扩散转为负面。倒置的收益曲线(负10-2次蔓延)过去几次经济衰退。但是,在产量曲线的反转后经济衰退的衰退时,没有准确的提前期(研究表明平均22个月的8至24个月的范围)。

然而,这次,产量曲线的反演可能是债券购买驾驶狩猎的结果,因为长期产量下降,而不是表明迫在眉睫的经济衰退。出于同样的原因,随着亚洲主权迅速缩小的收益率,选择亚洲产量曲线也可能很快反转。Indeed, Singapore’s 10-2 year spread turned negative on August 15, the first such inversion since 2006. This is a part of the broader phenomenon for global hunt for yields which has triggered interesting developments such as i) entire yield curves going sub-zero (Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland) or partly negative (France, Japan); ii) regional governments such as the City of Bremen in Germany extending the maturity of bond issuance to 30-year bonds; and iii) the 50-yr bond issue by Italy being oversubscribed six times at just 2.9% yield. The hunt for yields will continue as monetary policies become more accommodative, economic growth and trade slow further globally, and major geopolitical risks (for instance, US-China trade war and 'No-deal' Brexit) continue while new uncertainties arise (such as Japan-South Korea dispute, market collapse in Argentina, or re-election in Italy). The hunt for yield would cause more yield curves to invert until the market resets amid a (painful) recalibration (fall) of asset prices.